The CFP Bye Is Broken—and the Numbers Prove It
After the second year of the twelve team playoff, the teams that earned a bye continue to struggle. It was mentioned throughout the entirety of the quarterfinal finals that teams with the byes have had layoffs up to 26 days. Having teams earn a bye in sports playoffs is standard. Many leagues across the country have had success in giving byes to the most deserving teams. In other leagues, the bye is certainly an advantage and teams will fight to earn that right. In college football, it seems to be a disadvantage!
CFP 2025 FIRST HALF QUARTERFINAL SCORING DIFFERENTIAL
Penn State (17) vs *Boise State (7)
Texas (17) vs *Arizona State (3)
Ohio State (34) vs *Oregon (8)
Notre Dame (13) vs *Georgia (3)
FIRST HALF MISTAKES
*Boise State: Missed Field Goal & Fumble
*Arizona State: Missed Field Goal
*Oregon: (2) Turnovers on Downs
*Georgia: Fumble
First Half Total Scoring Differential
81-*21
Bye Teams 2025 Record 0-4
*teams that earned a first round bye
After the 2025 season the CFP committee decided to change the previous format in efforts to try and make the quarterfinal games more competitive. They decided that there should no longer be top four automatic bids for the top four conference champions. This new format would give the first round byes to the top four overall seeds adding more incentive to the regular season and conference championship games.
CFP 2026 FIRST HALF QUARTERFINAL SCORING DIFFERENTIAL
Miami (14) vs *Ohio State (0)
Oregon (6) vs *Texas Tech (0)
Alabama (0) vs *Indiana (17)
Ole Miss (12) vs *Georgia (21)
FIRST HALF MISTAKES
*Ohio State: Missed Field Goal & Interception
*Texas Tech: Fumble & Interception
*Indiana: No Mistakes (slow start)
*Georgia: No mistakes (slow start)
First Half Total Scoring Differential
*38-32
Bye Teams 2026 Record 1-3
*teams that earned a first round bye
Difficult Starts
The first round bye is supposed to be an advantage for teams not a disadvantage! Through two seasons of the twelve team playoff, teams with the first round byes are a combined 1-7. The data we gathered from the quarterfinal games clearly shows that teams that have a bye have been susceptible to first half slow starts and early mistakes. In this playoff, early mistakes and slow starts are hard to come back from. Teams in the playoff who have played in the first round have found success by gaining momentum and taking advantage of the bye programs' rust.
Layoff
The biggest issue in the college football playoff is the timing of the rounds. The playoff rounds are too far apart giving teams the long layoffs. Many coaches across the country have expressed that the 25+ day layoff is difficult for the players to compete at their best. Programs are struggling to keep their team prepared during the time off and it's resulting in poor performances. The subpar performances of the teams that earned a bye are hurting the playoff ratings as we are starting to get less competitive games. If we want a better playoff, the schedule needs to change as the playoffs need to be more condensed. The CFP should strongly consider the NFL format as the idle teams get no more than two weeks off in between games.
Neutral Sites Games
The first round of the playoff is hosted on college campuses which is an earned advantage based on seeding. Teams that earned a bye have to travel and play their first games on a neutral site field. In many different instances the teams with a bye (higher seed) have to travel further than their opponent which is an issue. Home field advantage matters in the playoffs: momentum from your crowd, weather, and even the field itself. Having the higher seeded teams that earned the bye should be hosting the quarterfinal games on their respective campuses. This would give the bye teams an advantage (that they earned) to play on their turf in front of their fans.
Future
Hopefully after this season concludes, the CFP revisists the format of the playoffs and allows the teams with a bye to have more of an advantage. This will not only help players, coaches and programs, but the ratings as well. If the format gets fixed, the playoff will be more entertaining and competitive. Aren’t we tired of the blowouts? Don’t we want to see teams at their best?
