This college football season has been anything but predictable, and we’re now reaching the point in the year when coaches start losing their jobs. Around this time last season, several big-name programs decided to move on from their head coaches after failing to meet expectations. Every team enters the season with certain goals based on its roster, coaching staff, and schedule. By late October, it usually becomes pretty clear which teams are living up to those expectations and which ones are falling short. This year is no different, as several programs have already disappointed. Dave Aranda (Baylor), Mike Locksley (Maryland), and Dave Doeren (NC State) have all reportedly been let go midseason, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that list continues to grow as the season goes on.
Coaches on the Hot Seat
Nobody wants to see coaches lose their jobs, but it’s become the reality of college football nowadays. In today’s game, programs have shown that they can turn things around much faster than ever before. With NIL money and the transfer portal, coaches now have the resources to completely rebuild a roster in just one offseason. We’ve seen first-year coaches across the country quickly change the direction of their programs by bringing in both talented high school recruits and experienced players through the portal. However, this has also created much higher expectations. Fans and athletic departments are becoming less patient with coaches who struggle to produce results, especially when they see other programs finding success almost immediately. The days of giving a coach four or five years to build a winning team seem to be coming to an end.
USC, Lincoln Riley
When USC hired Lincoln Riley, fans believed he was the coach who could bring the Trojans back to being one of college football’s top programs. However, that hasn’t happened nearly as quickly as many expected. This season looked like it could finally be different. With an experienced roster, a top-ranked recruiting class, and a manageable Big Ten schedule, expectations were high. Many people even picked the Trojans to make the College Football Playoff.
Fast forward to Week 8, and USC is coming off a blowout loss to Wisconsin, sitting outside the Top 25 and in the middle of the Big Ten standings. The Trojans are 6-2, with losses to Oregon and Wisconsin. While that record might not sound terrible, the losses look much worse when you consider how those teams have performed. Oregon was expected to be a national title contender but has struggled to a 4-3 record. Meanwhile, USC's embarrassing loss to Wisconsin has fans questioning whether Riley is the right man for the job. The Trojans will likely need to win out to have any chance at making the playoffs, and Halloween weekend could be a turning point for the program. Ohio State comes to town in what feels like a must-win game, not just for USC's playoff hopes but for Lincoln Riley's future.
Riley currently holds a 41-20 record at USC, which is an improvement from where the program was before he arrived. However, the biggest concern is his 5-15 record against ranked opponents. USC has consistently brought in talented players but continues to struggle against top competition. For a program with championship expectations, simply winning games against weaker opponents isn't enough. Fans have grown impatient, but firing Riley isn't nearly as simple as some might think. His reported $70 million buyout would make moving on extremely expensive. Another major concern is recruiting. Riley recently brought in the nation's No. 1 high school recruiting class, and USC is positioned to land more top talent over the next few years. Firing him could put those recruiting classes and the program's future at risk.
If USC continues to struggle against top competition, I believe the Trojans will eventually move on from Riley. However, with the massive buyout and the recruiting momentum he has built, firing him after this season wouldn't make much sense. For now, I think USC should give him another year, but the pressure is only going to increase if the Trojans continue to fall short of expectations.
Clemson, Dabo Swinney
A couple of years ago, the idea of Clemson firing Dabo Swinney would have sounded crazy. He brought the Tigers to the top of college football, winning two national championships, multiple ACC titles, and developing countless NFL players. At his peak, Swinney was considered one of the best coaches in the country, right alongside Nick Saban.
However, things have changed over the past five seasons. Since 2021, Clemson has gone 55-21, which is a major drop-off from the dominance we were used to seeing. During Clemson's prime, a single loss was shocking and became a national headline. Nowadays, losing has become much more common for the Tigers. They managed to win the ACC Championship in 2024 despite losing three regular-season games, earning an automatic playoff bid that ended in disappointment. Last season, Clemson entered with high expectations but fell well short, raising serious questions about Swinney's future.
Those concerns have only grown this season. Clemson suffered its third loss last night, dropping to 4-3 and putting its ACC Championship hopes in serious trouble. For a program that once dominated the conference year after year, this is a major disappointment. The ACC has traditionally been viewed as one of the weaker Power Four conferences, which makes Clemson's recent struggles even more concerning.
One of the biggest criticisms of Swinney has been his reluctance to fully adapt to the modern era of college football. While other programs have taken advantage of NIL and the transfer portal to rebuild their rosters, Clemson has been slower to embrace those changes. His recent coordinator hires have also failed to produce the results fans were hoping for. The game has changed, and it seems like Clemson has struggled to keep up.
Despite all of this, I don't believe Clemson would ever fire Dabo Swinney because of everything he has done for the program. He turned the Tigers into a national powerhouse and deserves respect for that. However, I do believe we could be getting closer to the end of his time at Clemson. Rather than being fired, I could see Swinney eventually deciding to step down, whether that means taking another coaching job or retiring altogether. Either way, it's becoming harder to ignore that Clemson is no longer the dominant program it once was.
Oregon, Dan Lanning
In my opinion, Dan Lanning is a phenomenal coach, but this season has raised some questions about his future at Oregon. Whether those concerns are justified or not, losing games you're expected to win will always put a coach under pressure. Lanning has put together an impressive 56-12 record during his time with the Ducks and has led them to the College Football Playoff every year since its expansion. Even more impressive is his 15-8 record against ranked opponents, which shows he can compete with some of the best teams in the country.
However, things haven't gone according to plan this season. Following this past weekend, Oregon now has three losses after entering the year as one of the favorites to win the national championship. The Ducks returned plenty of production from last season and brought in one of the top transfer portal classes in the country. Expectations couldn't have been much higher. Unfortunately, the season took a turn when starting quarterback Dante Moore, who was projected to be one of the top picks in the 2027 NFL Draft, went down with an injury. Oregon managed to pick up an impressive win over a highly ranked USC team, but the mistakes and disappointing losses continued to pile up afterward.
This situation reminds me a lot of Penn State last season. The Nittany Lions entered the year with national championship expectations after returning a talented roster, but a few early losses completely derailed their season and eventually led to James Franklin being fired. However, Franklin's situation was a little different because of his history of struggling against top-ranked opponents. Lanning has already shown that he can win big games, which is why I believe he deserves more patience.
At this point, Oregon's playoff hopes are over, and Lanning needs to find a way to get his team back on track. From the outside, it almost looks like he's lost control of the locker room, although it's impossible to know exactly what's happening behind the scenes. I don't see Oregon moving on from Lanning after one disappointing season, especially considering everything he's accomplished so far. However, he needs to make sure this season is just a bump in the road rather than the beginning of a downward trend. If these struggles continue into next year, the conversations surrounding his future could become much more serious.
