Dark Horses Are Emerging Across College Football
College football Week 5 has come to an end, and we’re starting to get a much better idea of how each conference is shaping up. While the usual contenders are beginning to separate themselves, several dark horse teams have put themselves in position to make some noise. Every year, a few teams surprise us once conference play begins, but this season feels a little different. With more parity across college football, some of these dark horses have a real chance to stay in the race until the very end. The 12-team playoff also gives teams more room for error, meaning a couple of losses won’t automatically end a season. Some of these programs have already survived the toughest parts of their schedules and now find themselves in a great position to control their own destiny.
Big 10
The Big Ten hasn’t looked quite as strong as it has the last couple of seasons, but the heavy favorites are still very much in the mix: Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon. Even with Oregon’s shocking loss to Oklahoma State, the Ducks are still in a great position to compete for the Big Ten Championship and make the College Football Playoff. Coming into the season, USC and Michigan were viewed as the main “bubble teams” in the conference. USC looked great to start the year, but the last couple of weeks have been rough, and their schedule only gets tougher from here. Michigan suffered its second loss of the season against Minnesota, which basically took the Wolverines out of the Big Ten Championship race and put their playoff hopes in serious trouble. With USC and Michigan slipping, the door is now open for some other teams in the conference to make a run. And surprisingly, a few of those teams weren’t even in the conversation before the season started.
Iowa Hawkeyes
The Hawkeyes have looked like one of the better teams in the Big Ten this season, even after suffering a blowout loss to Ohio State. Iowa has always found a way to stay in the conference championship conversation because of its stout defense, but the difference this year is that the Hawkeyes finally have an offense that can put some points on the board. In the past, Iowa’s identity was simple: control the clock with the rushing attack, play great defense, and rely on the punting game to constantly put opponents in bad field position. That is still a big part of their game plan, but this season they have added something they’ve been missing for years: a legitimate passing attack. This might be the most talented group of wide receivers Iowa has had in quite some time, and experienced quarterback Hank Brown has given them someone they can trust to lead the offense. With a much more balanced attack, Iowa doesn’t have to rely entirely on its defense to win games anymore. Even with one loss already on the resume, the Hawkeyes have a very manageable schedule the rest of the way. If they continue playing the way they have, Iowa should remain in the hunt for a Big Ten title and could even put itself in position for a College Football Playoff berth.
Northwestern Wildcats
The Wildcats were expected to be one of the bottom teams in the Big Ten this season, but they have already shocked a lot of people across the country. Coming into the year, Northwestern had plenty of question marks after retooling its roster through the transfer portal and bringing in Chip Kelly as the new offensive coordinator. So far, the Wildcats have proven they are no longer an easy opponent. They have competed with some of the better teams in the conference, even pushing Indiana deep into the fourth quarter. A big reason for their success has been the rushing attack, which has been very effective under Kelly’s offensive scheme. Head coach David Braun has this team playing physical football on both sides of the ball, and they aren’t backing down from anyone. The schedule gets tougher from here, but Northwestern has already shown enough to make them a legitimate dark horse in the Big Ten.
UCLA Bruins
We knew coming into the season that the Bruins would be a much better football team under head coach Bob Chesney, but they might be even better than we expected. Experience is one of the most valuable things a team can have in college football, and UCLA has plenty of it after retooling its roster through the transfer portal. The Bruins’ offense has been able to put up a lot of points this season, mainly because of their dominant rushing attack. UCLA is averaging 281 rushing yards per game, which ranks seventh in the country. That success on the ground has also opened up the play-action passing game, allowing the Bruins to create explosive plays down the field. The biggest question mark heading into the heart of Big Ten play is the defense. While UCLA has consistently created explosive plays on offense, it has also allowed too many big plays defensively. This past weekend showed some signs of improvement, but that development needs to continue with the toughest part of the schedule still ahead. There are three games left on the schedule that could completely change UCLA’s season: USC, Oregon, and a road matchup against Michigan. If the Bruins can find a way to win at least one of those games while taking care of business everywhere else, they could put themselves in position to make a serious run late in the season.
SEC
Once again, the SEC is beating itself up, and because of that, some really good football teams could be left out of the playoff conversation by the end of the season. The SEC is known as one of the toughest conferences in college football, and this season is shaping up to prove exactly why. Several teams that entered the season highly ranked have already fallen off, while others continue to move up and down every week. It seems like every Saturday a team earns a huge win and jumps into the conversation, only to turn around and lose the following week. That has left the conference standings extremely crowded with plenty still to be decided. With the new nine-game conference schedule, it’s hard to even call anyone a true dark horse because of how difficult the road ahead is. Still, a few teams have already shown they are much better than we expected coming into the season and could find themselves in the SEC and playoff conversation down the stretch.
Mississippi State Bulldogs & Florida Gators
Both Mississippi State and Florida suffered losses this past weekend, but each team has shown enough this season to prove they belong in the Top 25 conversation. Both programs have surprised a lot of people with what they’ve accomplished so far and have put themselves in a position to control their own destiny moving forward. The biggest concern for both teams is the schedule. They still have several tough matchups against highly regarded SEC opponents, so we’re going to find out quickly just how good these teams really are. There is also a chance both teams have been a little overrated because of their early-season success. Some of their previous opponents could fall off as the season continues, or Mississippi State and Florida may have simply peaked early. Either way, the next few weeks will tell us whether they are legitimate contenders or just early-season surprises. Even if both teams drop off as the season goes on, you can’t ignore what they have already accomplished. Mississippi State and Florida have shocked a lot of people across the country and have shown that their programs are heading in the right direction. Neither team had huge expectations coming into the year, so even if they fall out of the conference or playoff race, this season can still be viewed as a big step forward for both programs.
ACC
The Miami Hurricanes are the team to beat in the ACC this season, and that could remain the case for years to come. They have been dominant in conference play up to this point and look well on their way to competing for another ACC Championship and making a deep run in the College Football Playoff. Mario Cristobal has done a great job building this roster through both recruiting and the transfer portal. Miami lost plenty of talent from last year’s team, but they have been able to replace those players with guys who are making an immediate impact. That speaks to how far this program has come and the amount of talent Cristobal continues to bring to Miami. The talent gap between the Hurricanes and much of the ACC has been obvious when watching them play, and Miami has taken full advantage of it. The biggest question is how they will perform when they face teams with similar talent. Having Notre Dame on the schedule should give us a much better idea of whether Miami is just the best team in the ACC or a legitimate national championship contender.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The Demon Deacons have been surprisingly competitive this season and have now made it through the toughest stretch of their schedule. Wake Forest was able to hang with Miami all the way into the fourth quarter and also picked up an impressive win over a ranked Louisville team. At this point, they have shown they can compete with some of the better teams in the ACC. The biggest concern has been their defense. Wake Forest has given up too many explosive plays, which has led to opponents putting a lot of points on the board. So far, the offense has been able to make up for those defensive struggles, largely because of the great quarterback play from Gio Lopez. Lopez has been one of the biggest reasons for Wake Forest’s success, and his favorite target, Carlos Hernandez, has emerged as one of the most productive receivers in the country. That connection has given the Demon Deacons an offense capable of keeping them in almost any game. The good news for Wake Forest is that the toughest part of the schedule appears to be behind them. Their remaining ACC schedule looks very manageable, and if the defense can limit the big plays, there is no reason this team can’t stay in the race and potentially find its way into the ACC Championship Game.
Big 12
In my opinion, the top teams in the Big 12 right now are BYU, Utah, and Oklahoma State. Only time will tell how this conference plays out because most of these teams are around the same talent level, and the standings could completely change from one week to the next. Based on what I’ve seen so far, Texas Tech doesn’t look like the same dominant team it was last season. The Red Raiders are still a good football team, but they have shown enough weaknesses to make me believe an upset could be coming in the near future. Every contender in the Big 12 has shown some flaws, which is what makes this conference so difficult to predict. Out of all of them, BYU looks like the most complete and balanced team to me. The Cougars have impressed me the most so far, and I believe they have the best chance of not only reaching the Big 12 Championship but representing the conference in the College Football Playoff.
Biased Baller Top 10
Georgia Bulldogs
Texas Longhorns
Ohio State Buckeyes
Miami Hurricanes
Alabama Crimson Tide
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Indiana Hoosiers
LSU Tigers
Oregon Ducks
BYU Cougars
