Ranking the Top Contenders for the 2026 College Football Playoff
The 2026 college football season is almost here, and that means it's time to predict the 12 teams that will make the College Football Playoff. The offseason has been full of coaching changes, big transfers, and plenty of drama. While preseason predictions are rarely perfect, they're one of the best parts of college football. Just like the Associated Press preseason Top 25, we'll make our picks before any games are played. We'll base our predictions on strength of schedule, returning starters, coaching changes, and overall roster talent.
Big Ten Conference
The Big Ten has been dominant in the new College Football Playoff format, winning the national championship in back-to-back seasons. The conference has become the best in the country, with teams needing to play at a high level every week just to stay in the playoff race. Based on recent seasons, the Big Ten is capable of sending four teams to the playoff. However, with so many top teams facing each other throughout the season, they'll likely knock each other down, making that difficult to accomplish.
Three teams stand above the rest heading into this season: the Oregon Ducks, Ohio State Buckeyes, and Indiana Hoosiers. They are the only Big Ten teams to reach the College Football Playoff in each of the last two seasons, and all three have shown they can reload their rosters year after year. Unlike Oregon and Indiana, Ohio State faces one of the toughest schedules in the country this season. The Buckeyes will have little room for error, but if they can survive their challenging slate, they'll be in position to make another College Football Playoff appearance.
The Big Ten also has several bubble teams heading into the season. The conference would love to see one of them break through and earn a playoff spot, giving the Big Ten four teams in the College Football Playoff.
USC Trojans: This feels like a playoff-or-bust season for Lincoln Riley. He was hired to bring USC back into national title contention, and another year without a playoff appearance could put his future with the program in doubt. The Trojans returned plenty of talent and added key pieces through the transfer portal. Riley has also had success when his starting quarterback returns for a second season, which is the case with Jayden Maiava. Combined with a manageable schedule, USC is in a strong position to make a playoff run. As always with a Riley-coached team, the biggest question will be the defense. If the Trojans can improve on that side of the ball early in the season, they have the talent to compete for a playoff spot.
Michigan Wolverines: After all the drama surrounding the program at the end of last season, Michigan will have to bounce back under a new coaching staff. Kyle Whittingham appears to be a great fit, as Michigan has traditionally been at its best with a physical, run-first approach. Quarterback Bryce Underwood struggled last season and will need to take a big step forward if the Wolverines hope to return to the College Football Playoff. Michigan also faces one of the tougher schedules in the country, highlighted by an early non-conference matchup against Oklahoma. To make a playoff run, the Wolverines will need to get back to playing their brand of football by relying on a strong rushing attack and a tough, physical defense.
Penn State Nittany Lions: Last season, Penn State entered the year as one of the favorites to win the national championship, but the season quickly turned into one of the biggest disappointments in recent college football. Heading into this year, expectations are much lower after more than 40 players left the program and were replaced through the transfer portal. The Nittany Lions also have a brand-new coaching staff, making them one of the biggest question marks in the Big Ten. They benefit from one of the easier schedules in the conference, so a playoff run is certainly possible.
Iowa Hawkeyes: Iowa is almost always in the mix for the Big Ten title game, and this season should be no different with a favorable schedule. The Hawkeyes are known for being one of the toughest teams to beat in the conference, especially at home. While they may not be the conference favorites, they have the potential to mess up the Big Ten race by upsetting some of the league's contenders.
SEC Conference
The SEC has had a couple of disappointing seasons after spending years as the standard of college football. Since the start of the NIL and transfer portal era, the conference has had a tougher time keeping all of its top talent, while other conferences have benefited from adding experienced players. Many still consider the SEC the deepest conference in the country, but that depth can also work against it. With so many talented teams playing each other every week, losses can pile up quickly, making it harder for bubble teams to earn a playoff spot.
Georgia enters the season as the team to beat in the SEC, with fewer question marks than anyone else in the conference. Lane Kiffin taking over as LSU's head coach is one of the biggest storylines of the season. Kiffin has won everywhere he has coached, and this may be the most talented roster he has ever had. On paper, the Tigers and Longhorns have two of the most talented teams in the country, making all three programs strong contenders to reach the College Football Playoff.
The SEC is so deep that there really aren't any true bubble teams. Almost every team in the conference is capable of pulling off a big upset on any given week. Because of that, even the conference favorites aren't safe. One or two unexpected losses can quickly change the playoff picture, making the SEC one of the toughest conferences to survive.
Texas A&M Aggies: Texas A&M earned a playoff spot last season after a remarkable finish, knocking off several quality opponents down the stretch. Mike Elko is regarded as one of the best defensive coaches in college football, but his defenses in College Station have yet to consistently play at that level. The Aggies return most of their roster and will lean on dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed to lead another playoff push. If the defense can take a step forward, Texas A&M has the talent to make another postseason run.
Alabama Crimson Tide: Alabama made the College Football Playoff last season despite suffering a couple of surprising losses. The Crimson Tide are capable of reaching the playoff every year, especially with a favorable conference schedule. However, expectations are always high in Tuscaloosa, and the pressure to win can become a challenge of its own. The Tide also have several key players to replace from last season. Kalen DeBoer's offense is rarely a concern, but breaking in a new starting quarterback could slow the team down early in the season.
Ole Miss Rebels: The Rebels are out for blood after their head coach abandoned them in the middle of a playoff run. Many of their coaches left to go to LSU following Lane Kiffin but they showed in the playoffs just how talented they were without them. Going into the season they may have the best QB/RB duo in the sport as Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy will return for another season. Their schedule is manageable, and if they can limit the damage against the top teams on it, don't be surprised if they are back in the dance.
Oklahoma Sooners: Once again, Oklahoma faces one of the toughest schedules in the SEC. Last season, the Sooners were at their best when quarterback John Mateer was healthy, and early reports from fall camp suggest he is coming into the season motivated and ready to lead the offense. Oklahoma lost several key players on defense, but Brent Venables has built his reputation as one of the best defensive minds in college football. If he can get the most out of a retooled defense, the Sooners will have a chance to overcome their difficult schedule and compete for a playoff spot.
ACC Conference
The ACC has only a few teams that consistently compete for a spot in the College Football Playoff each season. Outside of the top programs, the conference has struggled to match the talent level of the other major conferences. Last season was another disappointment for the ACC, as its conference champion was left out of the playoff in favor of another Group of Six conference champion.
Miami Hurricanes: The best team in the conference enters the season with a reloaded roster and hopes of making another deep playoff run. Mario Cristobal has done an excellent job rebuilding the program by adding experienced transfers to fill roster holes while continuing to bring in strong high school recruiting classes. This season, Miami will once again rely on a talented transfer quarterback in Darian Mensah, who brings the explosiveness needed to lead the Hurricanes back into playoff contention. The Hurricanes will still need to stay focused despite having an easier schedule this season. Miami has had a history of midseason slip-ups.
SMU Mustangs: The Mustangs have been a pleasant surprise in the ACC, as they consistently put together competitive teams. They return their talented quarterback Kevin Jennings, who has carried much of the offensive load and forces defenses to adjust their game plans. With a very manageable schedule ahead, SMU has a legitimate chance to compete for the conference championship and could find themselves in the playoff conversation.
Clemson Tigers: Can Dabo Swinney get back to his winning ways? I’m not quite sure. He has finally adapted and brought some experienced players in from the transfer portal but, despite doing so they will need to prove to the country that they are legitimate contenders with a week one matchup against LSU.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Brent Key has a knack for knocking off top ranked opponents in recent years. They lost their star quarterback in Haynes King but added one of the best RBs in college football, Justice Haynes. They always play the role of spoiler but may have a chance to get into the ACC championship once again.
Big 12 Conference
Similar to the ACC conference, the Big 12 doesn’t have many quality teams within their conference. They do get one automatic bid but they are still looking to take two teams into the playoffs. I would say this year is their best chance to do so as they have some talented, more experienced teams this year.
Texas Tech Red Raiders: The Raiders put the entire country on notice last season when they became one of the biggest spenders in the nation, investing heavily into their roster. That aggressive approach paid off, as they earned a spot in the playoffs and went on an impressive postseason run. This season, expectations remain high, but the team has already faced some adversity. Following the news surrounding Brendan Sorsby and his eventual ineligibility ruling, the Raiders have had to deal with some unwanted distractions. Fortunately, Will Hammond has stepped into the starting role and showed plenty of promise when he saw the field last season. With a manageable Big 12 schedule ahead of them, Texas Tech has a legitimate opportunity to make another push toward the postseason.
BYU Cougars: They made headlines last season behind the remarkable play of freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who nearly carried them to a playoff appearance. With Bachmeier returning and the addition of much needed talent through the transfer portal, head coach Kalani Sitake has plenty of reasons to be excited about this team. The schedule will present a tougher challenge this season, especially with Notre Dame serving as a non-conference opponent. However, if the team can handle its conference slate and continue to build around its young quarterback, they should have a legitimate opportunity to compete for another Big 12 title.
Group of 6
Every year, this group of teams is one of the hardest to predict. We continue to see the top programs in this group strengthen their rosters by adding former Power 4 players through the transfer portal, making the landscape even more competitive. It’s nearly impossible to evaluate these teams before they take the field and show what they are capable of. In most cases, the team with the strongest overall roster will have the best chance to make the playoff. However, if a Group of 6 representative consistently fails to compete with the Power 4 teams once they reach the postseason, this format could be reconsidered, potentially putting the future of Group of 6 playoff access in jeopardy.
UNLV Rebels: They have been one of the most consistent programs in recent years, but they have yet to take the next step and break through. They have also become one of the top Group of 6 teams when it comes to using the transfer portal, consistently bringing in talented players to strengthen their roster. Now, the question is whether those additions can help them finally reach the level they have been chasing. We’ll find out what they have in store for us this season.
Boise State Broncos: Each of the last two seasons, they have been in the playoff conversation. Last year, their biggest weakness was a struggling offensive line that held the team back. With their starting quarterback returning once again, they bring back a leader with valuable experience who has already proven he can guide a team to the playoffs. Around the country, many believe the Broncos have the most talented roster among the Group of 6 teams, and this season will be a chance for them to prove it.
Notre Dame
Notre Dame was recently granted an automatic playoff bid if they finish the season ranked within the top 12. Last season, the Irish felt they were unfairly left out despite being considered one of the top 12 teams in the country, adding extra motivation heading into this year. They were a young team a season ago, but the valuable experience gained from that run should help propel them into the national championship conversation. With a favorable schedule ahead, Notre Dame will look to take advantage of every opportunity as they continue building toward a potential title run.
