SEC Panic Meter: Contenders, Pretenders & Teams in Trouble
Week 3 of college football is officially in the books, and now the real test begins: conference play. Through the first three weeks, we’ve gotten a pretty good idea of what many teams are capable of, but conference play is a completely different animal. This is where contenders separate themselves and teams we thought were good begin to fall off. We already got a taste of that yesterday, as the SEC saw some surprising upsets and close games. With the conference moving to a nine-game SEC schedule, the schedule ahead looks even tougher. So, is the SEC headed for another disappointing year, with teams beating up on each other and falling in the national rankings? Or will this be the year the SEC gets back on top and proves it’s the best conference in college football? This next week is a start to answering all of those questions.
Upsets
While many SEC programs don’t begin conference play until next weekend, a few teams got an early start and things didn’t exactly go as planned. Saturday’s games already threw a wrinkle into the SEC race, as several teams with high expectations struggled mightily. It may be an overreaction this early in the season, but with a brutal conference schedule ahead, these teams have already put themselves behind the eight ball. In a conference where every game matters, there isn’t much room for error.
Texas A&M vs Kentucky
Going into this game, the Aggies had extremely high expectations for their season, but they started conference play on the wrong foot with a 31-21 loss to Kentucky. Texas A&M entered the game as a 16.5-point favorite at home, and honestly, the final score makes the game look closer than it really was. Kentucky dominated in nearly every facet of the game, and the Aggies simply had no answer. New head coach Will Stein has turned the Wildcats around quickly, and this win could be his biggest statement yet. Kentucky just knocked off a team with College Football Playoff expectations and, in the process, put the rest of the SEC on notice
Over the last couple of seasons, Texas A&M just hasn’t been able to get over the hump. The Aggies have suffered multiple frustrating upsets, and many of the same problems continue to show up. Mike Elko is a defensive-minded head coach, but his defense has struggled in some of A&M’s biggest losses. I’ve been a huge fan of Elko, but there are starting to be some real concerns about how prepared his teams are for conference play. Slow starts have become a pattern in Aggie losses, and that problem continues to show up with Elko at the helm. The offense hasn’t helped much either. Marcel Reed is back for his third season, but the Aggies have struggled to create the explosive plays we’re used to seeing from this offense. Reed has also been turnover-prone and has struggled to get through his progressions quickly enough. Now, Texas A&M is staring down a brutal SEC schedule with very little room for error. Next weekend’s matchup against LSU already feels like a must-win game if the Aggies want to keep their season and College Football Playoff hopes alive.
South Carolina vs Mississippi State
South Carolina found itself in a very similar position to Texas A&M, just without the College Football Playoff expectations. The Gamecocks entered the game as 3.5-point favorites at home and got off to a strong start, building a 16-point lead before completely falling apart and losing 41-34. Mississippi State was an underrated team coming into the season, and this win proved they deserve some attention. The Bulldogs have now passed their first major test, but with a difficult SEC schedule ahead, we’re about to find out just how good this team really is.
The Gamecocks seem to be dealing with the same issues that have hurt them every season. Unlike Texas A&M, South Carolina usually comes out ready to play and has built some big leads in the process. The problem under Shane Beamer has been finishing games. This season was supposed to be another opportunity for Beamer to take South Carolina to the next level, especially with one of the most talented rosters he has had during his time with the program. Instead, the same frustrating pattern continues to show up. Time and time again, the Gamecocks build a lead, become too conservative, and allow their opponent to climb right back into the game. Beamer has shown he can get his team ready to compete, but eventually, the Gamecocks have to learn how to put teams away. South Carolina’s administration will have some difficult decisions regarding their coach and the future of the program.
Concerning Teams
Oklahoma Sooners
The Oklahoma Sooners already suffered a tough non-conference loss to Michigan, and many of the same issues from that game have continued to show up, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Oklahoma struggled mightily against New Mexico this past weekend, a team the Sooners should have been able to handle comfortably. Instead, they escaped with an ugly 14-6 win. The box score may make the offense look better than it actually played, but watching the game told a completely different story. John Mateer has struggled after a strong start last season and was expected to take another step forward with another year under his belt. Instead, he has been missing open receivers and forcing throws into coverage, leading to costly turnovers. The Sooners turned the ball over three times against New Mexico, and they were fortunate their defense was good enough to keep them from suffering another loss. Looking at Oklahoma’s upcoming schedule, things could get ugly quickly if the offense doesn’t improve. A team that entered the season with College Football Playoff aspirations now looks to be trending in the wrong direction at the worst possible time, with SEC play right around the corner.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Over the past couple of seasons, Clark Lea has turned Vanderbilt into a legitimate threat in the SEC. This season, however, it looks like the Commodores could come back down to earth. Vanderbilt is clearly missing Diego Pavia and the determination and swagger he brought to the program. On Saturday, the Commodores barely escaped NC State after a costly mistake in the final seconds gave Vanderbilt the opportunity to win the game. The biggest concern for this team is the defense. Vanderbilt has given up far too many explosive plays early in the season, allowing teams to hang around in games they should be controlling. That could become an even bigger problem once they get into the heart of SEC play. If the defense can improve, I could still see Vanderbilt finishing somewhere in the middle of the SEC. However, the talent and experience just don’t seem to be there for the Commodores to make the same kind of run we’ve seen from them over the past couple of seasons.
Alabama Crimson Tide
I have had a hard time trying to gauge just how good the Tide actually are through the first couple of games. The most worrisome part of this team so far has been the defense. Over the past couple of games, Alabama has given up too many yards and points early before making the right adjustments after halftime. I’m still concerned about Alabama because you simply can’t afford to start slow once conference play begins. Against better SEC competition, an early deficit can quickly become too much to overcome. The offense, however, seems to be getting better each week, with Keelon Russell continuing to show off his unique skill set. There is a lot to like about his potential, but the youth and inexperience on that side of the ball are still concerning. Alabama has time to correct these issues, especially with the toughest stretch of its more favorable SEC schedule coming later in the season. Still, the combination of a young offense and slow starts defensively leaves me with plenty of questions about just how good this Alabama team actually is.
LSU Tigers
After the first week of the season, I was ready to call LSU a legitimate National Championship contender. The Tigers have since gone on the road into a tough environment and lost to an experienced Ole Miss team, but I’m not overly worried about the loss. The off-field distractions surrounding the game may have played a factor, and I was actually impressed by the resilience LSU showed. The Tigers found themselves down 17 points but battled their way back into the game instead of completely falling apart. My biggest concern with LSU isn’t necessarily how they played against Ole Miss, it’s the schedule ahead. Suffering an early loss in conference play gives the Tigers very little room for error the rest of the way. LSU has one of the toughest schedules in the SEC, and navigating that gauntlet will be a major factor in whether or not this team reaches the College Football Playoff. The talent is there, but after this early loss, the margin for error just got a whole lot smaller.
Great Position
Ole Miss Rebels
The Rebels are once again in a great position after picking up a huge win in a close top-10 matchup. Trinidad Chambliss has looked like one of the best quarterbacks in college football, and if Ole Miss can keep Kewan Lacy healthy, this offense is going to be extremely difficult to stop. The defense has also shown flashes of being dominant, but the Rebels need to find more consistency on that side of the ball. If they can put together complete performances defensively, there aren’t many major weaknesses on this team. Looking ahead, Ole Miss also has one of the more favorable paths to the College Football Playoff among SEC teams. After picking up an important conference win over LSU, the Rebels are exactly where they want to be heading deeper into SEC play.
Georgia Bulldogs
The Bulldogs haven’t skipped a beat from year to year with Kirby Smart at the helm, and it doesn’t seem like that will be stopping anytime soon. Many people will chalk up Georgia’s success to having favorable SEC schedules, but the Bulldogs rarely slip up and consistently take care of business. This season looks to be heading in that same direction. Some of the teams that were supposed to be Georgia’s “tougher” opponents have already struggled early in the season, making the Bulldogs’ path look even more favorable. As long as Georgia continues to avoid the upset losses that hurt other SEC contenders, they should once again be in a great position throughout conference play.
Texas Longhorns
The Texas Longhorns finally got over the hump a couple of weeks ago when they defeated the top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes in comeback fashion. Winning these types of big games has been Steve Sarkisian’s Achilles’ heel during his time at Texas, but the Longhorns finally found a way to get it done. Texas has one of the most talented rosters in the country and finished non-conference play undefeated while still being tested along the way. That experience should help them as they enter a difficult SEC schedule. Conference play won’t be easy, but entering it undefeated gives Texas some room for error that other SEC contenders don’t have. The talent is there, they’ve already proven they can win a huge game, and now it’s about putting everything together when it matters most. Could this finally be the Longhorns’ year?
Florida Gators
The Florida Gators came into this season looking like a middle-of-the-pack SEC team without a ton of expectations. So far, though, I have been very impressed with what I’ve seen. Florida already looks much better under John Sumrall and his staff, and it feels like the program is finally moving in the right direction. The Gators may not be ready to compete for a College Football Playoff spot or an SEC Championship just yet, but they don’t necessarily need to this season. Showing clear improvement and becoming a tougher team to beat would already be a successful step forward. I’m predicting Florida knocks off at least one of the SEC’s top teams this season.
The SEC Conference would like to get as many teams as possible into the playoffs this season, but the change to a nine-game conference schedule could make it even more difficult for them to accomplish that. Until the College Football Playoff expands further, it seems that four teams may be the maximum number from one conference that could realistically make the playoffs under the current format. With teams now playing more conference games against one another, there will be more opportunities for teams to suffer losses. As a result, the increased number of conference matchups could ultimately lead to fewer SEC teams qualifying for the playoffs.
Biased Baller Week 3 Rankings
Georgia Bulldogs
Texas Longhorns
Ohio State Buckeyes
Miami Hurricanes
Ole Miss Rebels
Indiana Hoosiers
LSU Tigers
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Alabama Crimson Tide
BYU Cougars
