The Big Ten has been one of the premier conferences in college football for quite some time, and over the last three seasons, it has completely taken over the College Football Playoff. With three straight national championships coming from three different programs, the conference has established itself as the one to beat in this new era of college football. However, that dominance could be coming to an end this season. Several programs that entered the year with championship expectations have failed to live up to the hype, and the conference is starting to look a lot like the SEC. Instead of having a few dominant teams separate themselves from the pack, Big Ten programs are beating up on each other week after week, making conference play a nightmare for teams with playoff aspirations. As a result, we could see several teams finish with identical records, but those records might not be good enough to earn a playoff spot. There is still plenty of football left to be played, but as of right now, I don't see a single Big Ten team that looks nearly as dominant as the championship teams we've seen over the past three seasons. The conference might still be one of the deepest in the country, but does it actually have a legitimate national championship contender?
Big Ten Powerhouses in Trouble
Ohio State Buckeyes
The Ohio State Buckeyes find themselves in unfamiliar territory after suffering their third loss of the season, something that hasn't happened since 2011. To make matters worse, the Buckeyes have now dropped back-to-back regular-season games, putting their playoff hopes on life support. This third loss may have officially slammed the door on their national championship aspirations, which would be a massive disappointment for both the program and the Big Ten. There is still a slim chance that Ohio State sneaks into the Big Ten Championship Game, but they would need plenty of help from other teams around the conference for that to happen.
What makes this situation even more concerning is how the Buckeyes have lost these last two games. They haven't just been beaten; they've been completely dominated. Usually, when Ohio State loses, you can point to a few costly mistakes or a handful of plays that didn't go their way. That hasn't been the case recently. Ever since losing starting quarterback Julian Sayin to injury, this team hasn't looked anything like the Ohio State we're used to seeing. It almost seems like the entire team lost its confidence when Sayin went down, and that lack of confidence is showing on both sides of the ball. The Buckeyes still have a path, although a very narrow one, to the Big Ten Championship Game and potentially the College Football Playoff. However, winning out is an absolute must. If they continue playing anything like they have over the last two weeks, they can forget about the playoffs altogether. What started as a season filled with national championship expectations has quickly turned into one of the most disappointing Ohio State seasons in recent memory.
Oregon Ducks
The Oregon Ducks looked all but dead just a couple of weeks ago, but they've managed to turn things around and build some serious momentum heading into the final stretch of the season. With back-to-back ranked wins over Ohio State and Northwestern, along with an earlier victory over a ranked USC team, the Ducks are starting to put together a pretty impressive resume. Sure, those three losses aren't pretty, and they'll certainly be held against them, but Oregon seems to be hitting its stride at exactly the right time.
Losing starting quarterback Dante Moore, who was projected to be one of the top picks in the upcoming NFL Draft, was a massive blow to this team and played a big role in their three losses. However, with Dylan Raiola now running the offense, the Ducks finally seem to have found their rhythm. It took some time for everything to come together, but this team is starting to look dangerous again. Most people had already written Oregon off as a playoff contender, but the committee may have left the door open by including the Ducks in last Tuesday's rankings. That tells me they still see something in this team despite its three losses. If Oregon can somehow sneak into the Big Ten Championship Game and pick up another statement win, we could be looking at one of the more surprising playoff pushes of the season.
Big Ten Playoff Hopefuls
UCLA Bruins
The UCLA Bruins are officially in the driver's seat in the Big Ten, as they are now the only undefeated team remaining in the conference. They completely control their own destiny, and at this point, many people already have them penciled into the Big Ten Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. There are still a few obstacles standing in their way, including some quality opponents and their rivalry matchup against USC, but no team in the conference has a clearer path to the postseason than UCLA.
There are still plenty of people questioning just how good this Bruins team actually is, but what more do they need to prove? They've done everything asked of them up to this point, even after losing starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava. Under Bob Chesney, UCLA has become one of the more disciplined and well-balanced teams in the conference, combining a strong defensive unit with a consistent offensive attack that does just enough to win games. They might not be the flashiest team in college football, but they've found a formula that works, and the results speak for themselves. Nobody had the Bruins making the playoffs before the season started, yet here they are, just a few wins away from making that a reality. My biggest question is whether this style of football will hold up against the elite competition they'll face in the postseason. I'm still not completely sold on UCLA as a legitimate national championship contender, but at this point, they've earned the right to prove everyone wrong. Only time will tell just how far this surprising Bruins team can go.
Indiana Hoosiers
Even after suffering a home loss to Ohio State, the Indiana Hoosiers still control their own destiny in the Big Ten. Their biggest test remaining on the schedule comes this weekend when they host USC in a matchup that could have massive implications for both the conference championship race and the College Football Playoff. A win would put Indiana in a great position moving forward, but another loss could make things very interesting down the stretch.
The biggest concern I have with Indiana is that they haven't looked nearly as dominant over the past few weeks as they did earlier in the season. Their loss to Ohio State continues to look worse as the Buckeyes struggle, and the Hoosiers have also needed overtime to escape against two middle-of-the-pack Big Ten teams in Michigan and Minnesota. On the bright side, they found ways to win both of those games, but how much longer can they keep getting away with these close calls? The offense in particular hasn't looked nearly as sharp, and if those struggles continue, things could unravel pretty quickly. Indiana still has everything right in front of them, and winning out would put them in the Big Ten Championship Game and in excellent position to make the playoffs. However, if the Hoosiers don't figure things out offensively, that dream season could turn into a nightmare in a hurry.
USC Trojans
The USC Trojans still have a chance to control their own destiny in the Big Ten despite already suffering two conference losses. What makes their situation interesting is that they still have matchups against Indiana and UCLA, the two teams currently standing in their way of reaching the Big Ten Championship Game. That gives USC a golden opportunity to shake up the conference standings and put itself right back into the title conversation. However, there is absolutely no room for error at this point. The Trojans must win out to have any realistic shot at competing for a conference championship, and even then, they could find themselves on the wrong side of a tiebreaker scenario.
The good news for USC is that its playoff hopes are still very much alive. If the Trojans can take care of business down the stretch and finish the regular season at 10-2, I believe they would have a strong case for a spot in the College Football Playoff. Of course, that's much easier said than done with two of the conference's top teams still on the schedule. USC has a chance to prove it belongs among the nation's best, but it's going to have to earn that respect on the field. The Trojans have their biggest opportunities of the season right in front of them, and we'll soon find out whether they're legitimate playoff contenders or just another Big Ten team that couldn't survive conference play.
Best Case Scenario for the Conference
The best-case scenario for the Big Ten to get as many teams into the College Football Playoff as possible is pretty simple. USC wins out, while Indiana and UCLA finish the regular season with just one additional loss apiece, both coming against the Trojans. If that happens, the Big Ten would be in a great position to send three teams to the playoffs. They might not be the conference's biggest brands, like Ohio State and Oregon, but the Big Ten could still have both conference championship participants make the field, along with a 10-2 team earning an at-large bid. Considering how much these teams have beaten up on each other throughout conference play, getting three teams into the playoffs would be a pretty successful outcome.
That being said, just because the Big Ten could get three teams into the playoffs doesn't mean I believe any of them are legitimate national championship contenders. Based on what we've seen so far, there isn't a single team in this conference that looks nearly as dominant as the programs that have won the last three national championships. Sure, one of these teams could surprise everyone and make a deep playoff run, but I just don't see it happening. The Big Ten has owned college football over the past three seasons, but I believe that run of supremacy is finally coming to an end this January. The conference might have the depth to get multiple teams into the playoff field, but does it actually have a team capable of winning it all? Right now, my answer is no.
